Premier League xG overperformance 2026/27: who is scoring above and below their chances
Every season has a striker on a hot streak and a striker everyone says is due. This is the Premier League version by the numbers: the 5 players scoring furthest above their xG and the 5 furthest below, paired off so the finishing and the chances sit side by side.
Right now. Morgan Rogers leads on +2.65 above xG, 0.41 ahead of João Pedro. New to the 10 since the last change: João Pedro, Mohamed Belloumi, Erling Haaland, Gonzalo García Torres. Biggest climber: Julio Enciso, up 1 place to 6th.
The Premier League players scoring furthest above and below their xG
| Player | Club | Goals minus xG | Goals | xG | Shots | Goals per shot | Minutes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morgan Rogers | Chelsea · 24 | +2.65 | 4 | 1.35 | 17 | 0.24 | 523 | View profile → |
| 2 |  João Pedro | Chelsea · 25 | +2.24 | 5 | 2.76 | 13 | 0.38 | 432 | View profile → |
| 3 |  Rayan Cherki | Manchester City · 23 | +2.08 | 4 | 1.92 | 14 | 0.29 | 396 | View profile → |
| 4 |  Mohamed Belloumi | Hull City · 24 | +1.77 | 3 | 1.23 | 15 | 0.2 | 424 | View profile → |
| 5 |  Erling Haaland | Manchester City · 26 | +1.70 | 6 | 4.3 | 22 | 0.27 | 530 | View profile → |
| 6 |  Julio Enciso | Ipswich Town · 22 | -1.44 | 0 | 1.44 | 19 | 0 | 486 | View profile → |
| 7 |  Phil Foden | Manchester City · 26 | -1.52 | 0 | 1.52 | 6 | 0 | 219 | View profile → |
| 8 |  Gonzalo García Torres | Fulham · 22 | -1.53 | 1 | 2.53 | 18 | 0.06 | 514 | View profile → |
| 9 |  Florian Wirtz | Liverpool · 23 | -1.89 | 0 | 1.89 | 14 | 0 | 470 | View profile → |
| 10 |  Igor Thiago | Brentford · 25 | -2.13 | 1 | 3.13 | 14 | 0.07 | 533 | View profile → |
What the numbers mean
Goals minus xG is the luck line. It compares what a player has scored with what the quality of his chances says he should have scored, and it is the quickest way to tell a hot streak from a level. The players at the top are finishing above their chances; the players at the bottom are getting into good positions and not converting.
The cards pair the furthest above with the furthest below, and the bars beside them show why: goals, xG, goals per shot for the finishing, and xG per shot for the quality of the chances. A full bar means the top of the Premier League outfield pool.
The list rebuilds every night from the latest matches, so it will move as the season goes on. The date on each card says when it last changed.
More on xG → · xG against xGOT → · The best finishers list →
What does goals minus xG mean?
Goals scored minus expected goals. A positive number means the player has scored more than the quality of his chances says he should have; a negative number means he has scored fewer. Over a season both tend to move back towards zero.
Is overperforming good?
For now, yes: the goals count. But history says it rarely lasts, so a big positive number is a warning that the goals will slow, and a big negative number often marks a player getting into good positions who is about to start scoring.
How often does it update?
Every night, from the latest matches. The order, the cards and the table rebuild together, and the date on each card says when the list last changed.
Reading the list
Treat the top of the list as a run that will cool and the bottom as a run that will turn, unless the goals-per-shot bar says a player has finished like this for years. The xG-per-shot bar is the quiet one: a player at the bottom with a high figure is getting excellent chances and missing them, which is usually temporary. Each name opens a full FDscout profile.